Well folks, PlayBook Launch Day has been underway in the US and Canada for officially 5 hours and so far, it’s not shaping up so good for Research in Motion. Not to say that the PlayBook isn’t making waves in the kiddie pool, but it seems as if analysts have fixed ratings sealing the fate of the Canadian tech company into a position of near powerlessness.
Unfortunately, following a day of near positive press for RIM, this morning opened up vaguely optimistic. RIM started the day at $54.25 after closing a rather positive session on Wall Street yesterday. Unfortunately, over night trades had a lot of time to think, and think they did. Channing Smith, a manager for the Capital Advisors Growth Fund, opened up the day with a statement indicating a bold future for Apple, a bleak future for RIM. He’s basing the success of a company on the length of its lines at it’s retail stores.
Well I looked at Apple’s website and I noticed that they list “Over 300 stores world wide.” Striking. I wasn’t aware of how many stores had the iPad and iPad2 for sale. 300! Wow. That’s a lot. And RIM has placed their PlayBook in only 20,000 retail stores in North America. Pathetic. And yes, I do know the iPad is available at several other third-party retail locations outside of their Apple branded retail locations, but that is not where a majority of their revenue stream originates.
Alkesh Shah, an analyst at Evercore, is still fully behind the PlayBook, however. “Early innings for tablet market and PlayBook looks like a player,” Shah says. “We model 55 million tablets to ship in 2011 and 103 million in 2012. For RIMM, we model 4 million PlayBooks to ship in 2011 (including only 500,000 in RIMM’s current quarter given launch timing) and 13.5 million in 2012.” He knows they have a “strong product” and can withstand the beating being dished out over on Wall Street.
Alastair Sharp, from Reuters, did a piece this morning on how the PlayBook hasn’t been received well by consumers. Again, he cites the lack of consumer frenzy as a leading reason as to why the PlayBook isn’t doing so well.
The media has gone in circles these past few days. It’s a back and forth that is seemingly tireless, and progressively moving backward. All I have witnessed is an onslaught of mixed reviews, emotions, and final decisions on the consumer base of Research in Motion. One must not forget, however, that there are over 50 million BlackBerry users in the US alone, the PlayBook, well it’s being directly marketed to those users specifically. According to all the reviews, it doesn’t seem like that notion is rendered even slightly.
What I don’t understand is how a starting point and consumer base of 50 million users has ever steered a company wrong.
The Rant
You know, I try my best not to incorporate any bias into these blogs, as this is a BlackBerry blog, that is kind of difficult. I try to be broad-minded. But, I must say that it is really difficult, especially when the numbers don’t add up. RIM has posted a fiscal revenue growth of 33%, saw a growth in shipped handheld units of 43%, and a growth in earning per share of 46% – all year over year. With a strong consumer base in the US alone and $2 billion in liquidity – these analysts are full of it.
The same old tired excuses keep pushing the stock down, the consumers down, as well as the media appeal down. RIM is not Apple. They never will be. Will they ever get to the point where their devices are sleek, sexy, and massively sought after, coupled with huge media stunts of long lines outside relatively empty “Flagship” Stores jut to grab massively absent minded media attention and artificially inflate their stock valuation – maybe…but I don’t see it happening. Why you ask? Because RIM isn’t from Silicon Valley. RIM isn’t full of it. RIM values their consumer base, values the quality behind their products and sticks by the quality.
Sure, RIM has really betrayed the consumer for the past couple of years, but it’s time to remove the chip from each of our respective shoulders and open our eyes to a future rife with competition, great consumer products, and future ushering in a massive technological revolution. Apple is not the future, neither is RIM. And both of those companies would not still be here, if it wasn’t for a loyal following of consumers. We should also recognize that they’d be much better working together than against each other – but that won’t happen any time soon, so let’s revel in the competition, but learn to play nice.
With that said, I want to be the first to say: Thank You RIM. Thank you for not marketing superficially wonderful, but truly empty products to me. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to decide for myself, and not be swayed in decision by the hordes of people I see foolishly waiting on TV for your product to launch. Thank you for providing Gatorade and not Koolaid. Thank you.